September 2010
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Banks back switch to renminbi for trade

By Robert Cookson in Hong Kong

A number of the world’s biggest banks have launched international roadshows promoting the use of the renminbi to corporate customers instead of the dollar for trade deals with China.

HSBC, which recently moved its chief executive from London to Hong Kong, and Standard Chartered, are offering discounted transaction fees and other financial incentives to companies that choose to settle trade in the Chinese currency.

“We’re now capable of doing renminbi settlement in many parts of the world,” said Chris Lewis, HSBC’s head of trade for greater China. “All the other major international banks are frantically trying to do the same thing.”

HSBC and StanChart are among a slew of global banks – including Citigroup and JPMorgan – holding roadshows across Asia, Europe and the US to promote the renminbi to companies.

The move aligns the banks favourably with Beijing’s policy priorities and positions them to profit from what is expected to be a rapidly growing line of business in the future.

The phenomenon will accelerate Beijing’s drive to transform the renminbi from a domestic currency into a global medium of exchange like the dollar and euro.

Chinese central bank officials accompanied StanChart bankers on a roadshow to Korea and Japan in June. The bank held similar events in London, Frankfurt and Paris.

Lisa Robins, JPMorgan’s head of treasury and securities services for China, said there had been a “spike in interest” from international clients.

An increasing number of Chinese companies have been asking foreign trading partners to accept renminbi as payment, said Carmen Ling, Hong Kong head of global transaction services at Citi.

BBVA, Spain’s second-biggest bank, is also drawing up plans for a global marketing campaign that will focus on Latin American companies that export to China.

Banks started establishing renminbi trade settlement operations in mid-2009, when Beijing introduced a pilot scheme allowing companies to use the renminbi for trade outside China.

The scramble has intensified in recent months as Beijing has substantially expanded the scheme – from a handful of Asian countries to the whole world – and introduced other liberalisations to its currency regime.

Cross-border trade in renminbi totalled Rmb70.6bn ($10bn) in the first half of the year – about 20 times the Rmb3.6bn recorded in the second half of 2009.

But those figures remain tiny compared to the $2,800bn worth of goods and services that were traded across China’s borders last year, most of which was settled in dollars or euros.

With renminbi trade settlement volumes expected to increase rapidly, banks are under pressure to establish a foothold in the nascent market and demonstrate to Chinese officials that they are committed to the scheme.

China has taken several steps in recent months to boost the international use of its currency and to establish Hong Kong, the special administrative region, as the global centre for offshore renminbi business.

McDonald’s, the US burger chain and icon of globalisation, took advantage of the new rules this month when it became the first foreign multinational to issue renminbi-denominated bonds in Hong Kong.

via FT.com / Currencies – Banks back switch to renminbi for trade.

The People’s Bank of China – english web site

English web site for The People’s Bank of China.

China Dlr-Yuan Parity Set Lower At 6.7999

BEIJING (MNI) Aug 23- 2010 – The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s central parity rate at 6.7999 to the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, lower than the previous trading day’s central parity of 6.7989.

Today’s parity was set below the record high of 6.7685 on Aug.9.

The yuan finished at 6.8003 against the U.S. dollar on the over-the-counter (OTC) market Monday, lower than last Friday’s close of 6.7902.

The yuan has seen increased volatility in the trading days since the PBOC’s June 19 pledge to increase exchange rate flexibility. The yuan has risen by 0.41% since that pledge was made.

Based on today’s parity, the yuan is up 0.45% from a year earlier against the dollar, according to Market News International calculations.

The yuan fell 0.06% in 2009 as the government continued to hold the Chinese unit virtually pegged to the U.S. dollar, despite growing international criticism about its exchange rate policy. It rose 0.1% in July and has risen 0.43% so far this year.

Last year marked the first that the yuan has fallen against the dollar since being depegged in 2005. The paltry move against the dollar last year compares with the 7.05% rise in 2008 and the 6.86% jump seen in 2007.

Today’s fixing brings the yuan’s gains against the greenback to 21.71% since currency reforms were announced on July 21, 2005, including that day’s one-off 2.1% revaluation.

The yuan was set higher against the euro but lower against the yen today.

The PBOC set the yuan parity against the euro at 8.5924 today, up from the 8.6414 fixing the previous trading day. The yuan is up 14.09% y/y against the euro based on today’s fixing.

The yuan depreciated 1.41% against the euro last year, a dramatic shift from its 10.43% jump in 2008.

The yuan was also fixed at 7.9881 to the Japanese yen, down from the previous session’s 7.9450. The yuan is down 9.69% y/y against the yen based on today’s fixing.

The Chinese currency rose 2.53% against the Japanese yen in 2009, a turnaround from 2008’s 15.32% depreciation.

The People’s Bank of China started setting a daily central parity rate on Jan. 4, 2007.

On July 21, 2005, China freed the yuan from its longstanding peg to the dollar in favor of a managed float with reference to a basket of currencies.

On May 21, 2007, the PBOC widened the daily fluctuation band for the yuan-dollar exchange rate to 0.5% from 0.3% on either side of the central parity rate.

via China Dlr-Yuan Parity Set Lower At 6.7999; +0.45% Y/Y | iMarketNews.com.

China Ditches the U.S. Dollar, Are Times Changing?

Chinese RMB NotesWe all know the US flogs its debt to anyone willing to buy it. And up until recently, that’s been China.

Very slowly, over the past twelve months China has been lowering its exposure to US treasuries. In fact, in the last twelve months, they’ve offloaded about USD$100 billion dollars worth.

Some of this has been by simply not purchasing more bonds upon maturity. While some of it has been by turning those US dollars into precious resources. Instead of waiting for bonds to mature, it has used the cash to buy up natural gas stores, investing in oil rigs and even throwing money into companies with large iron ore mines.

But now, it looks like China has more interest in the financially crippled Euro, instead of building up its supply of greenbacks.

In fact a former advisor to the central bank of China has been told by a top level Chinese central banker to convey to the European central banks the ‘confidence that China has in the region’s economy and currency.’

Why does it have so much confidence in the currency now?

Firstly, Euro holdings are offering a far better yield than the US, which means solely as an investment, it’s make much more sense to go with the product that offers a higher return.

Now you might be tempted to consider this a risky move by investing more money in the Euro rather than the traditional ‘international currency’ US dollars.

But what if the central bankers understand something we don’t, or more importantly, America doesn’t get?

And that is, America is no longer a sound investment.

It could be that Chinese central bankers have decided that should the US fall apart financially, they no longer want to risk their US currency reserves, which is more than 30% of their total foreign reserves.

From the very start of the ‘naughties’, China sought to grow its foreign currency interests. What started out as a lazy USD$181 billion in 2002, grew to over USD$1 trillion by 2008. Of course, the US dollar/Yuan having a favourable exchange rate only helped these purchases…

And now, China has passed Japan as the largest holder of long term debt in the States, currently holding a massive USD$843 billion.

Coming in second is Japan, with a massive USD$800 billion of US debt and the UK has the third largest amount of American debt at USD$362 billion.

Let’s be honest, none of these countries are in the position to pick up the debt as China slows down it’s buying of US debt.

As I mentioned earlier, Japan is already up to the eyeballs in their own debt and so isn’t likely to go on a US bond buying spree. And the UK has promised fiscal austerity, so loading up on another country’s treasuries with a record low yield probably isn’t going to make much sense.

See, during those boom times, when public debt didn’t matter, America knew that it could issue debt and would have a very willing buyer… China.

That’s starting to change.

At the start of this year, the massive level of public debt held by China set off alarm bells with some US government officials. Even so, China still made another USD$30 billion in purchases before the Chinese government decided to start slowing the purchases down.

There are massive implications for America now that China has decreased its holdings. Any reduction in holdings by China could see overall demand for American debt drop. If it hasn’t already.

And think about it. What if China becomes the world’s largest economy and shuns the US as an investment vehicle? Would you be inclined to follow China’s lead and dump US dollars and US investments too?

A casual dumping of American Treasuries will inevitably lead to an even weaker US dollar. Which eventually can only encourage other investors, and countries to seek out a new reserve currency.

Let’s face it, right now there’s no other country that can pick up the US debt like China can. But China’s new found interest in the Euro could be about more than just better investment yields. It could just be the next step in the shift of economic power.

via China Ditches the U.S. Dollar, Are Times Changing? :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website.

China Yuan Declines Most in a Week on Lingering European Woes

China Yuan Declines Most in a Week on Lingering European Woes
By Bloomberg News

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) — The yuan slid the most in a week on speculation policy makers will slow appreciation amid signs that Europe, China’s biggest trading partner, still needs emergency measures to prop up its debt-laden economies.

The People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate 0.15 percent lower as the euro traded near a five-week low. European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said last week policy makers should keep stimulus in place through the end of the year. China must stabilize trade in the near term, the Financial News reported today, citing Wang Zixian, deputy director of the policy and research department at the commerce ministry. Local bonds were little changed.

“The euro’s weakness led to a decline in the yuan’s fixing rate,” said Liu Dongliang, a Shenzhen-based analyst at China Merchants Bank Co., the country’s sixth-largest lender by market value. “If problems with the European economy linger, that will have a big impact on China’s export recovery.”

The yuan declined 0.15 percent to 6.8003 per dollar as of 5:30 p.m. in Shanghai, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. That was its biggest drop since Aug. 16. Twelve- month non-deliverable forwards were little changed at 6.6841, reflecting bets the currency will advance 1.7 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China’s exports increased 38.1 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with a gain of 43.9 percent in June, the customs bureau said on Aug. 10.

The currency has risen 0.4 percent since the central bank dropped a two-year peg against the dollar on June 19.

Yields Steady

Government bonds were little changed after the Ministry of Finance sold three-year notes at a yield that was in line with the secondary market, according to Chen Jianbo, a Beijing-based fixed-income analyst at China International (China) Ltd.

The ministry sold 19.5 billion yuan ($2.9 billion) of the securities at 2.37 percent.

“We don’t have much news to drive yields in either direction at this stage,” said Feng Chen, a bond analyst at China Galaxy Securities Co. in Beijing. “Growing supply of new debt this week, including bonds issued by financial companies, may push up yields.”

The yield on the 2.76 percent note due in July 2017 was at 2.88 percent, and the price of the security was 99.26 per 100 yuan face amount, according to the National Interbank Funding Center. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

Bond Sales

Central Huijin Investment Co., the state company controlling China’s biggest banks, will auction as much as 54 billion yuan of seven- and 20-year bonds tomorrow, the first portion of total planned sales of 187.5 billion yuan. The proceeds will be used for cash injections into five finance companies in which it holds stakes, it said in a statement last week.

The issuer set an interest-rate range for the seven-year debt between 2.85 percent and 3.45 percent, and the 20-year notes between 3.87 percent and 4.47 percent, Central Huijin said in a statement today on the website of the government’s clearing house.

via China Yuan Declines Most in a Week on Lingering European Woes – BusinessWeek.